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Posts Tagged ‘technical analysis’

Gold and Silver Miners On Upward Move

In Featured Company News on November 8, 2011 at 7:52 pm

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Investors in mining equities are finally being rewarded for their patience and fortitude.  The Gold Miners (GDX) ETF is making a challenge to all time highs at the $64 area after basing for close to a year between the $52.50 low and $64 high.  What is the cause of this impressive move in gold, silver and the miners?

The unemployment numbers continue to show that the economy has produced not that many jobs.  The Fed will be forced to implement accommodative measures through the reinstitution of quantitative easing.  Investors are now factoring in a QE3 by whatever guise necessary.

The unemployment rate is already high.  Elections are looming.  The politicians in Washington will do whatever they must if they want to have a chance at being reelected.  Bernanke in his statements assured us that he has a number of arrows in his quiver.

Another Ben with the name Franklin famously wrote, “The only thing that is certain is death and taxes.”  Bringing this aphorism up to date one could add economic stimulation and inflation to his observation.

Gold Stock Trades continually annunciates the mission statement of our service.  Stocks are very carefully selected as candidates that may experience major gains which far exceed the negative interest rates given by your friendly neighborhood bank.  The miners (GDX) have vindicated our motus operandi.  They are on the move…upward and onward!  Excelsior!

Wealth in the earth assets are similar in ways to other crops.

As Solomon advised, “There is a time to sow and there is a time to reap.”  Recent developments may serve as our vindication.  Despite the cavils of the naysayers in early October who recommended cash and treasuries GST repeatedly counseled, “Stay the course and hold fast to the wheel in precious metals and natural resources!”  In fact on 9-27-11 our gold timing indicator went from a hold to an aggressive buy.

When gold and silver declined, we bought and advised patience and fortitude despite the large presence of naysayers calling for a major deflation bringing down precious metals and commodities.  We are well aware that the natural resource arena that we have entered is capable both of astonishing rewards and gut wrenching descents.  One must take the opportunity to fight the herd at those extreme levels of emotion.

Many investors misconstrue the very nature of The Bourses.  The casino must do whatever it can to send most people home as losers.  There can only be a minority of winners in order for The House to make a profit.

Stocks in general are not the get rich quick game.  It is instead the age old story of the transfer of wealth from the guys who take the bus home to those that go home in limousines.  The ascent upwards is more often gradual than meteoric.

Along the way in the upward progress of our precious metal selections there will be times as Winston Churchill often stated, “…this is one of those days of the Black Dog.”  It is important for our readers to understand the game.

Markets will do whatever they must to shake the weak leaves off the strong tree.  Jesse Livermore wrote, “Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting.”  Ergo we select, then wait for the fruits to grow in time.

Many of the “experts” came on the table to sell their precious metals and mining stocks so they can enter the so called safe havens of treasuries and cash in late September, early October.  We stated firmly that it was sowing time, not selling time.   The weak summer-autumn season was rapidly coming to a conclusion and the fourth quarter has generally been very strong for the industrial commodities we follow such as copper, molybdenum, rare earths, lithium and uranium as well as precious metals such as gold and silver.  Additional monetary easing should act as a catalyst for these sectors as well as increasing tensions in the Middle East especially Iran.  The fourth quarter comeback in gold, silver and the miners to close September’s downside gaps has been a surprise to many.

In late April and September, mining stocks attempted to break into new highs on low volume and failed.   Mining equities and natural resource stocks began their consolidations breaking long term trendlines and moving into a major area of support at $52.50 a key line in the sand. Precious metal investors ran to the underlying bullion and long term treasuries as a means of a safe haven and aversion to any market risk.

We believes capital will begin flowing back in from treasuries and cash into first precious metal miners and critical wealth in the earth assets as economic stimulus is reintroduced into the market.  As Omar Khayyam wrote centuries ago, “Come, grow along with me, the best is yet to be.”  Look for temporary pullbacks and sell offs as opportunities in the long upward ascent of precious metals.  Stay tuned to my free service for flash bulletins.

Check out this recent interview below with Peter Dougherty, President & CEO of Argonaut Gold(AR.TO), one of the few gold miners significantly outperforming their peers in 2011 and hitting new 52 week highs.  It should be noted that the current management team at Argonaut previously served at Meridian Gold which was sold to Yamana for $3.5 billion dollars.



Healthy Correction In Precious Metals Brings Opportunity

In Market Analysis, Stock Movers on October 6, 2011 at 6:22 am

Over the past few weeks I have alerted  subscribers that gold was due a healthy pullback.  On September 5th, 2011 I wrote,

“It’s been a long run for the bullion since my firm’s late January 2011 buy signal. Make no mistake, it will rise though, refreshed to make another run to higher highs. A brief retreat for gold bullion to long-term trend support would be of no surprise. Indeed, it may represent a healthy and necessary correction in what my firm views as the ongoing highway of the long secular rise. These thoughts should not be regarded as bearish analysis at all. Instead they are being presented as a technical and healthy possibility to eliminate current media-hyped precious metals euphoria and avoid buying gold bullion at an interim top.”

Barron’s quoted our Gold Stock Trades Premium Daily Bulletin today indicating a potential reversal after this post Fed, short term, volatile “twist”.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) gained 4.6% on the day while its small-cap minded cousin the Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) rose 5.2%. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) finished higher by 5%.

“Seasonality should play a factor here. Historically, bear markets end and bull markets begin in the fourth quarter. To those summer soldiers considering throwing in the towel, this may be a time for reconsideration,” noted Jeb Handwerger, editor of Gold Stock Trades.

To read the full article in Barron’s click here.

Check out my recent interview discussing the recent selloff and one gold miner making major progress in mining friendly Nevada.


Great Potential Upside In Gold and Silver Miners

In Market Analysis, Stock Movers on September 20, 2011 at 9:19 pm

There has been short term profit taking in gold over the past few weeks as investors return to an oversold equity market. Make no mistake such a development is temporary and healthy as GST believes gold prices will make it back to the $1900+ area.

It is important that our comments be clearly understood. As the SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE:GLD) hit our overbought targets we moved laterally into our mining selections, which were just on the cusp of upside breakouts after several months of consolidation.

We remain firmly aboard the long term ascent of the golden highway. However, we are now reaching a point where the gold trade is becoming overcrowded and we see greater potential upside in our undervalued miners such as the Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) and Silver Miners ETF(NYSE:SIL).

A correction here to $1650 would be within the parameters of a healthy consolidation. Recognize that GLD has made a considerable move since our last buy signal.

As contrarians it requires tremendous discipline to take profits when everything is coming up roses and to buy when there is blood in the streets. Yet this is precisely the discipline of the astute trader. There are always situations under the radar, ripe for the picking.

The gold bullion trade may have been getting somewhat crowded in early August as these central banks entered during the eye of the storm. My readers have been prepared for this current debt hurricane for many years. Now when gold reaches the front pages of the media in early August our readers were prepared for a bullish consolidation and focused on the undervalued miners just beginning to make major moves.

The undervalued miners (GDX and SIL) have yet to enjoy the run up that gold (NYSE:GLD) and silver (NYSE:SLV) bullion has experienced in 2011 and look to have recently broke out. Our chart below suggests that a rise is imminent in our selections in the precious metal miners(GDX and SIL) to catch up to the underlying bullion.

The markets will do whatever they can to confuse and misdirect us as prices may possibly retreat from these interim levels to long term support. It has been a breathtaking rise in the yellow metal as the Euro and the United States both attempt to work its way out of their respected debt crises. We have seen an accelerated move in gold and this recent pullback may furnish some holders with the opportunity to reenter. The miners appear to be outperforming the bullion and may have broken a key downtrend.

The uptrend in gold is still intact. Moreover, my firm believes that the rise in gold and silver is a sign that QE3 will occur in whatever guises necessary. The lawmakers in Washington are not ready to adopt draconian measures to reduce deficits by raising taxes and by cutting entitlements. Instead, they are choosing a much easier solution which is to monetize the debt. The Fed will continue to print cheap dollars (NYSE:UUP) in order to pay off obligations. This is one of the subsurface meanings to the solution of the debt crisis. Investors are concerned by the current brittle economic fears of fiscal troubles that may lie directly ahead. Prices already are repeating last year’s meteoric rise in gold. As the U.S. dollar grows weaker and inflation increases, the price of gold will move higher over the long term although there will be healthy, restorative pullbacks along the way. During those pullbacks the miners should outperform and shrink a very wide divergence. Stay tuned to my daily bulletin.

Don’t Be Blinded by Current Equity Market Euphoria

In Market Analysis, Stock Movers on January 10, 2011 at 4:46 pm

Bill Gross, the PIMCO money manager, to whom it is often worth listening, cautioned this week that our nation’s leaders really don’t know where they’re going. They’re mired in the fiscal quicksands of perpetual trillion dollar deficits. I believe, as he does, that there will be more agony ahead after the present euphoria in the equity markets. Thus I say, “Caveat Emptor — Let the Buyer Beware!” Our leaders are paying scant attention to the “Buck” that is being passed on to our children who are going to be stuck with the bills. Today I don’t see anybody around to weep for our infants. As the reporter covering the burning of the Hindenburg shouted in horror, “O the humanity!”

Even though the markets are hitting new highs, don’t be blinded by the current euphoria on equity markets. Bullish sentiment is reaching new highs, surpassing the pre-credit crisis top. Herds are selling their precious metal investments to enter US equities on the hope of a recovery. This is giving an opportunity to precious metal investors to buy gold and silver on sale. As the mining stocks correct and gold and silver make a healthy pullback, precious metal traders who took profits in October and November, when it was overbought and reaching resistance, will now be in a strong position to enter as the price finds support over the next few weeks and reaches oversold levels.

This reckless US deficit spending may reap the whirlwind of higher inflation, a weaker dollar, and the loss of our AAA credit rating. An unintended consequence may be the abandonment of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Already the Russians and Chinese are in a pact to trade in their own money to protect themselves from imminent dollar depreciation.

Time and space do not permit me to discuss the deleterious effects of such items as earmarks, obscene bonuses, municipal government insolvency, and a list of the men and companies that got away with mere slaps on the wrist.

Perhaps well-chosen and carefully followed mining stocks and well-timed gold and silver purchases may offer a shelter from the approaching storm.

I invite you to partake in my free 30 day trial at http://goldstocktrades.com/premium-service-trial where many signals are being confirmed and sent out to readers.

Watch Out For A Fake Breakout In Gold And Silver

In Market Analysis on December 7, 2010 at 9:17 pm

In my studies of the financial markets, I have found the study of trading tactics to be similar to my studies of military history and sports.

In 329 BC, Alexander the Great, in his mid-20s, led his army through the Hindu Kush mountains to Central Asia to expand his empire that covered 1 million square miles. He was a terrific military strategist who would often defeat his opponents psychologically in order to preserve his army, which for many years marched 30 miles a day across deserts and mountain ranges carrying heavy equipment. Alexander became the most powerful leader in his generation until his mysterious death at the young age of 32.

One of his classic battle strategies consisted of ordering his men to blow the war trumpets and yell their battle cries night after night so that a besieged city would need to prepare for war repeatedly. Eventually, the foes would grow tired of this daily routine and Alexander would monitor exactly when the enemies stopped reacting. As soon as Alexander saw the window of opportunity he attacked fast and hard and would decimate his adversaries.

Similarly in football, a defense will line up at the line of scrimmage often faking a blitz, forcing the quarterback to call an audible. Eventually, after faking a few times, the quarterback lets down his guard, and that’s when the blitz comes and the major yardage loss occurs unexpectedly.

Similarly with the gold ETF (GLD). Last week it broke the August-to-November trend and showed a negative divergence, causing many technical analysts, myself included, to be concerned of a steeper correction. Since my October 4 signal, where I ventured out of bullion into the junior miners, the best way to play the gold market is through trading the oscillators. In August and September, gold had a steady climb higher. This was a trending market. We began seeing some key psychological bearish one-day reversals in October and the gold market began behaving volatile with a false breakout in early November. At that time I focused on my highly rated junior miners as I believed that their breakouts were more secure than the bullion due to the upside volume. After the false breakout we had high volume distribution days and broke the August-to-November trendline. The battle cry from the “bears” was heard. Bulls supported gold but the enthusiasm and volume was nowhere near the previous sell-off. Now we’ve just broken highs, but on recent breakouts there has been a lot of profit taking. This signals an area of key psychological resistance. A lack of volume on the breakout and high volume reversal is signaling that the bears’ battle cry is heard again. Will this be the real deal?

Dollar and Gold Miner ETF Analysis

In Market Analysis on June 12, 2009 at 11:22 am

UUP

As we can clearly see that the dollar is having a bear rally.  The moving averages and the trendline is acting as resistance.  The dollar opened up today and is testing the 20 day moving average which is the short term “magnet” for the stock.

The GDX has come back right where I thought it would come back to which was the previous resistance that is now its support.  Please see my archived analysis of GDX.  This teaches us not to chase after any positions as there will be second chances which is now.

Looking at the individual commodity stocks, it seems as though they are ready for another move.  Last night I sent out a free bulletin of two recommendations that have the possibility to make huge gains.

Oil Versus Gold Chart Analysis

In Market Analysis on June 11, 2009 at 7:46 pm

GLDvsUSO

The spread of the price of gold to oil is extreme and there seems to be some interesting opportunities in the energy exploration and energy services area.  Recently a lot of money has been flowing into both of these areas and the trends are changing.  Projects that would not work at $40 a barrel would certainly proceed at $80.  I would want to find companies that offer leverage to the price of oil.  In one area there have recently been major mergers.  Some of the smaller players have the opportunity to be taken over at huge premiums.

One area that is still quite undervalued and out of the headlines is uranium.  Uranium powers 16% of the world’s energy supply and there are many nuclear power plants being built across the world and many more filing applications.  Power plant projects are costly.  There is bipartisan support in the US for nuclear plants due to reduction of carbon emissions.

I have great opportunities in both areas.  Stay tuned to my free newsletter to hear of these two opportunities.

One of the Best Gold and Silver Mining Exploration Stock U.S. Gold

In Stock Movers on June 11, 2009 at 2:13 pm

Today U.S. Gold (UXG) came out with exceptional drilling results.  As I announced last week before there meeting in New York, that I believed that important news will come out.  Their El Gallo project is quite impressive as they are observing increasing mineralization and they are continuing to explore the property they acquired from Nevada Pacific.  They don’t even know how big that project can become.

They are also bringing out another drill in Nevada where they started actively drilling at the end of May.  They are exploring the outer edges of the Tonkin project to see if there are similar mineralizations as the huge Barrick project.

Rob Mcewen is on a mission to build a huge company, which he has done before.

As the chart shows we are breaking out here and I do believe this trade has an opportunity to make huge gains.

UXG

DIA Showing Distribution

In Market Analysis on June 10, 2009 at 8:17 pm

Dia 6-10

I posted a few days ago that DIA is approaching resistance at 9000 and this rise has been on light volume.  Some people have said that is because of  summer where trading decreases.  However, there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines.  If it was a true beginning of a bull then it would appear in the volume.

Therefore, I have been skeptical of this rise and I am very skeptical of this market after three days of increasing selling.  I expect a sell off.

This begs the question what about our stock positions in TGB, NGD, GMO, and UXG.  We need to be aware of the overall U.S. Market, however there still is strength in emerging markets so I am not prepared to sell my positions in these companies.  Stay tuned and I will notify if we have to take our trailing stops.

Stock Market Update. Important Week for DOW. 6-6-09

In Market Analysis on June 8, 2009 at 8:53 am

dia 6-7-09

Major resistance is being approached for the DOW.  Notice the trendline and resistance where it failed three times in December of 08.  Overhead resistance and lack of volume on the recent rally tells us to be careful and to be ready for a shorting opportunity.  Stay Tuned!  Make sure you have trailing stops set up.

Interesting Stock Chart on China

In Market Analysis on June 7, 2009 at 8:40 pm

FXI 6-6-09Notice the thick blue line and how FXI (25 largest and most liquid China Stocks) crosses that trendline on the point and figure chart.  This shows us the strength of the most leading emerging market and how this market had impacted this rally for the past three months since the March bottom.

It is clear that China is buying up natural resources and stimulating their economy.  The real estate market and construction industries in China are heating up.  They are building power plants, mines and roads.

There are a few signs that there might be a slight short term pullback the next few weeks from the non confirmation in relative strength and low volume.  However, this is the time to get into companies that the Chinese need which have huge amounts of natural resources.

The secret is out China is on the search for precious metals and natural resources.  These next couple of days will give second chances to get into companies that have those assets.

We know what the Chinese need and are able tom make huge gains in finding the companies that have the greatest leverage to these necessities.

NGD Update 6-6-09

In Stock Movers on June 6, 2009 at 10:24 pm

pf ngd 6-6-09

Notice the break through the trendlines which is confirmed on our point and figure chart.

ngd 6-6

Everything looks OK at the moment.  Be prepared for a breakout of this bull flag pattern as NGD approaches its 20 day moving average.

Resistance on GDX (Gold Miner ETF)

In Market Analysis on June 4, 2009 at 11:51 pm

gdx 6-4-09We wanted to show a 2 year chart on GDX gold miner etf.  There is major resistance at the $45 dollar area which needs to be broken.  In order to do that I would not be surprised of a short term correction to the $39 area.  This is where I would wait so that the GDX comes off its overbought status and prepare for the next leg up.

Stock Pick for 6-4-09 (NOT a Mining Stock)

In Stock Movers on June 3, 2009 at 7:05 pm

I sometimes include on this blog for some of our followers some tradeable picks that are not mining stocks.

This pick is gaining popularity as a healthy cosmetic company with environmentally friendly products and excellent earnings growth and return on equity.

The company is Bare Escentuals (BARE).

BARE 6-3-09

BARE is about to break out of a bullish symmetrical triangle base after a breakout gap.  Look for a breakout through 10.50.

Gold Stock Update 6-3-09

In Stock Movers on June 3, 2009 at 6:35 pm

A few days ago (please see my archived post from 5/31/09) we mentioned be careful of chasing the gold sector as it is quite overbought.  We also mentioned to wait for a retracement to the 20 or 50 day moving average.  This is what is happening a retracement to shake out weak holders.  Our students and long term followers have been following Taseko for a few months.  Today thestreet.com had a video on it.  So the mainstream is now picking it up which concerns me as that means we will probably have a pullback.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=13794899&src=finance&ch=633473

Be Careful!

In Market Analysis on June 3, 2009 at 8:45 am

Dollar is exremely oversold and will bounce.  Mining stocks are overbought.  Place trailing stop losses to lock in gains.  Be careful not to take new positions if stock is overextended.  Wait for a pullback to get into positions.  We believe we will have second buypoints for our position as a shakeout of weak hands will take place now.  We will inform when our stops are hit.  We will not be giving out new positions until we find more opportune buying points.

Chart Of Gold (Inverted Head and Shoulders)

In Market Analysis on June 1, 2009 at 10:11 pm

gld 6-1-09

This appears to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern which means that a break to the upside is highly probable.  Look for a breakout of the previous top with good volume.

Nasdaq Breakout

In Market Analysis on June 1, 2009 at 8:42 pm

qqq 6-1Since the March low the Nasdaq rally has lacked volume and appeared to make a rising wedge.  After a breakout to the downside on low volume the Nasdaq appeared to make a rectangle sideways pattern.  This battle between buyers and sellers was resolved today to the upside.  Today the Nasdaq broke out of resistance so buyers are in control where bad news is shrugged off and any good economic news sends stocks soaring.  At the moment we need to stay long and continue looking for the best trading opportunities.