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In Stock Movers on July 29, 2010 at 4:59 am
New Gold (NGD) has been a long term recommendation for my readers since May of 2009 when it was selling at $2.50. I have always been impressed by the quality of assets New Gold owns. New Gold is unique in the mining sector as they are leading the sector in increasing production and reducing cash costs. In two years, this company has gone from being in debt to having a comfortable net cash position.
They have three operating mines in mining friendly jurisdictions and cash costs have significantly decreased. Costs are expected to go down further when New Afton in British Columbia and El Morro in Chile get started. Both mines have huge amounts of copper. The copper byproduct decreases the cash costs of the gold to almost nil. It becomes pure profit. Their major development project, El Morro in Chile is one of the world’s major gold copper mines and New Afton is an exciting mine that has close to a billion pounds of copper reserve and a million ounces of gold.
The El Morro project is joint ventured with Goldcorp and is one of the world’s largest gold copper mines, with 6.7 million ounces of gold reserve and 5.7 billion pounds of copper. Like New Afton, this is also a large gold and copper mine that will add huge profits in New Gold’s future and decrease cash costs due to its high amount of copper. This is clearly a company with impressive assets and growth ahead.
Recently the share price has come down due to a negative decision by a Mexican Court regarding one of their three mines, Cerro San Pedro, a massive mine with a million ounces of gold and 50 million ounces of silver. It was over a technicality in the original Environmental Impact Statement, even though the Cerro San Pedro mine is internationally recognized for its standard on minimizing its affects on the environment. Actually the whole case is over a land use issue not environmental issues. Prior to this decision, New Gold received an injunction to continue operations while the legal issues are being resolved. Due to past precedents, during the appeals process New Gold is likely to continue operations.
It is important to realize that this locale is dependent on mining as a way of life. There are over 1600 jobs that are reliant on the mine remaining open. The government certainly doesn’t want this mine shut down as it indirectly contributes half a billion pesos to the Mexican government, which is battling many problems including unemployment and crime. A skyrocketing unemployment rate in the region could be chaotic. The economic health of the region requires the mine to remain open and running. Recently a newly elected council of landowners in the area are challenging the old council who started the legislation by attempting to drop all litigation against New Gold.
I believe this will be resolved in due time with New Gold revising the Environmental Impact Statement, or that the decision eventually will be overturned. This may become a long, drawn out affair. However, I highly doubt that this mine will be shut down during this process as it would spur an economic disaster for the local area. 
New Gold (NGD) has been one of the best performing stocks in the mining sector. They have a top management team, with directors who have built major mining companies and resolve minor setbacks. I believe this will be one leading gold stock over the next several years because they have the assets and the financial condition to grow. This pullback is a great opportunity for a long term holder. Notice how it has pulled back to previous resistance at $5 which is now support. Also it has come in play with the long term upward sloping trendline which it has touched 5 times successfully. It is currently close to historically oversold levels. Coming in play with support, coupled with the oversold conditions provide long term investors a prudent market entry point. Subscribers who have followed my advice in my free newsletter at goldstocktrades.com are now up over 100%.
Disclosure: I own shares of New Gold.
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In Market Analysis on July 21, 2010 at 3:59 am
Trading against the market herd, also known as going contrary can be quite profitable, but timing is another challenge entirely . Many contrarians make calls too early as irrational markets tend to stay irrational too long for most investors to stay in them. Nevertheless, when used in conjunction with other technical tools it can provide excellent market entry points that are high reward and low risk when structured correctly.
In these past few weeks since my article on the death cross and why specifically this cross is quite bearish due to other technical signs, I have been bombarded with emails and links to Barron’s and Marketwatch which claim the death cross when back-tested is a contrary indicator with no statistical advantage. Word to the wise, be careful of what you read in the widely published media reports. A technician worth his salt knows if a death cross is real and if you need to be wary of a market downturn, similar to the market decline of 2008.
Remember that Barrons, CNBC and MarketWatch are in the business of advertising, which depends on their circulation. Many of their ads are supported by major corporations who want their readers to be bullish rather than bearish.
What has concerned me lately in gold was the amount of media promoting the possibility of gold skyrocketing during the recent Sovereign Debt Crisis, where many fled the Euro to buy treasuries, the dollar and gold. Today there was speculation that may threaten banks who are not lending. This is becoming a deflationary crisis and investors are now concentrating on treasuries. Mortgage rates are at all time lows, lending is drying up and housing starts are plummeting. There are worries about U.S. Debt, higher taxes and increased government intervention in the private sector. This shakeout in precious metals is giving investors another opportunity to jump into this bull market without being caught up in the hysteria. To enter the trend with additional capital, it would be wise to buy when the conditions are oversold.
I have written about the use of oscillators to show short term buypoints in an uptrend. I am seeing this happening again with gold. Gold is about to hit an 18 month trend line, which has been successfully tested 6 times. This is a valid and significant trend line that needs to be monitored closely. Oversold conditions coupled with long term trend support leads to highly profitable times, as indicated in the chart below.
While learning to trade, I was taught to be a patient lion waiting for the best possible opportunity to pounce. Lions wait intently until they are sure of optimal results: a profitable trade. Now as a trader of gold and silver, I see opportunity approaching. The best way to play this market is by buying gold and silver when it hits the lower support trend line and is oversold, and selling as it approaches the rising resistance line. This rule forces you to enter when the conditions are oversold but still in an up market, giving you very minimal downside risk. Each time gold has rallied into new highs, the first correction to that trend line has been the counter trend bottom in the next major move.
Investors should be concerned if there is a break in that trendline as it has proven to be valid over the past 18 months. There are many similarities with silver.
I believe silver is a great buy here at $17, especially as this is a true deflationary hedge. Eventually the public will want real money, which is gold and silver. Silver has the possibility of making a major run as it is way below all time highs. During this time when it is oversold and coming in play with long term support, I would position myself for a move higher from the $17 area to $21 by the end of 2010.