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Posts Tagged ‘technical analysis gold silver’

Breakout in Precious Metals, Pay Attention to High Quality Explorers

In Market Analysis on August 31, 2010 at 6:38 pm

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The global debt crisis and the war on deflation by the Federal Reserve is causing precious metals to approach a key resistance level.  Gold is nearing a 52 week high while silver is close to breaking $19.  A break above these levels on high volume could be the beginning of a major move higher.

Gold and silver has been a safe haven asset.  Many concerns were expressed if miners would collapse in a weak equity market.  However, since the last Federal Reserve meeting, gold and silver has shown impressive relative strength compared to the overall market. The Federal Reserve discussed the increase of treasury purchases to keep interest rates artificially low. They also made it clear that every attempt will be made to prevent deflation.  This low interest rate environment and weak economic outlook which may continue for some time has encouraged investors to move money out of equities into safe haven assets such as gold and silver.  Gold and silver is also gaining interest as investors are realizing bond yields are too low and may be risky at these level.

The Fed’s greatest fear is deflation, high unemployment and a move into new lows in equities before the election.  If the S&P continues to deteriorate and unemployment data comes in negative, I expect an announcement of more central bank interventions to reflate the economy.  This next round of quantitative easing could cause a massive rush into gold and silver.

Many are concerned of the safety of fiat currencies during a global debt crisis.  The global economy is built on spending and investing.  Many investors were concerned if a downturn in the equity market would drag down junior miners.  These past couple of weeks have proved that is not the case.  Junior miners have made major moves higher.  A breakout into new 52 week highs in the miners is highly probable especially as the price of bullion breaks out.

The saucer (cup) and handle pattern is the chart reader’s favorite pattern.  Great performing stocks tend to have a strong base before an extended move.  Gold’s (GLD) pattern is very rare and this setup tends to be very profitable.  Similarly to what we saw in September of 2009, I expect a major breakout.  Is this pattern showing investors that a major event may be brewing?  Time usually tells the tale as news or events are announced after the breakout.

High quality gold and silver explorers are making major moves already.  It is important to pay attention to the gold and silver junior miner sector as we may be setting up for peak gold and silver.  High quality explorers with mineable assets should be followed as gold and silver discoveries are rare and producers are paying a premium for these properties.  These miners tend to have great leverage to the price of bullion especially if we see more government interventions and quantitative easing.

Yesterday, Fronteer Gold, a stock that I have recommended to my readers bought out Auex Ventures to control completely the Long Canyon Project.  The Long Canyon discovery is high grade and open pit. Fronteer is consistently coming out with impressive results from this project.  Long Canyon represents continued resource growth as it is expanding and open in all directions.

A major move in bullion could cause these explorers to make large percentage gains.  If you haven’t researched high quality junior miners yet, now is the time before a major move.

Disclosure: Long Gold and Silver Miners

Deflationary Crisis Part 2, Will This Time Be Different For Gold and Silver?

In Market Analysis on June 29, 2010 at 8:45 pm

Stocks went down sharply today on concerns over consumer confidence and indications that show that the economy is stalling in China.  China has been a leading market in this recovery and its bull market has helped the price of industrial metals and base metals.

Over the past few weeks I have highlighted that the market has given signs of a major deflationary crisis and economic slowdown.  Today these signs became apparent with a significant sell off on high volume and a break into new lows for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Today major institutions sold equities and sought shelter in treasuries and the dollar.  Gold and silver both sold off early in the day but gold fought back and closed up and silver was able to recoup some of its losses.  Gold and silver are still in a uptrend and above both the 50 day and 200 day moving average.  Gold and silver miners also appear to be close to a major breakout.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had a significant break of previous lows on high volume.  I alerted readers several days ago to buy inverse etf’s when the markets failed to regain the 50 day moving average for the second time.  Many times after this second failure the market has a major breakdown.  The time to short is when the averages fail at the 50 day not when it makes new lows as many less experienced traders are doing now.

Many traders are fearing that silver and gold may be a top here as they are comparing 2010 to 2008.  I understand that fear and am monitoring that situation closely.  I have received a lot of requests to comment on the situation.

At the moment I believe that we will not see a correction in precious metals like we saw in 2008.  There has been a global concerted effort for governments to devalue currency and assist the economy with unprecedented spending and cheap dollars.  The Euro is on the verge of a collapse and there are major sovereign debt issues that is spreading to more countries.  I do not believe the U.S. government will be immune from those debt issues.  The United States has high unemployment, weak consumer confidence, a huge amount of debt and poor GDP growth.

Gold miners appear to be on the verge of a major breakout into new pre credit crisis highs.

The chart above shows the relative strength of the gold miner etf to the S&P 500.  A break to 51 on that chart would show great relative strength to the market.  During this market downturn since May 6th miners and bullion have shown good relative strength which does not make me conclude that we are having a repeat of 2008.