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On a previous update I mentioned not to get too excited by buying the miners when they are overextended. Look for strength as the mining index will come back to support which was previous resistance at 37.50. Notice the upward sloping trendline that will act as support as well. Coincidentally it appears as the 20 day on the weekly chart is very close to this trendline.
Major resistance is being approached for the DOW. Notice the trendline and resistance where it failed three times in December of 08. Overhead resistance and lack of volume on the recent rally tells us to be careful and to be ready for a shorting opportunity. Stay Tuned! Make sure you have trailing stops set up.
Notice the break through the trendlines which is confirmed on our point and figure chart.
Everything looks OK at the moment. Be prepared for a breakout of this bull flag pattern as NGD approaches its 20 day moving average.
We wanted to show a 2 year chart on GDX gold miner etf. There is major resistance at the $45 dollar area which needs to be broken. In order to do that I would not be surprised of a short term correction to the $39 area. This is where I would wait so that the GDX comes off its overbought status and prepare for the next leg up.
BARE did not trigger a buy as we had the buy point at 10.51…maybe it will hit that tomorrow.
TGB was up but it does have resistance at the $2 area which it will take some time to breakthrough.
NGD was unchanged and is now building a “handle.”
UXG was up around 6% and closed at the high of the day. Look for a breakout through $2.75.
GMO was up 10% today on good volume exactly how we saw it would play out.
We are long these four positions TGB,NGD,UXG and GMO.
How hypocritical! Bernanke came out yesterday requesting Congress to curb budget deficits after increasing the money supply exponentially. Use this time period to look for additional opportunities to get into the best commodity opportunities. NGD, TGB, GMO and UXG are great low priced positions that will move higher in an inflationary environment.
I sometimes include on this blog for some of our followers some tradeable picks that are not mining stocks.
This pick is gaining popularity as a healthy cosmetic company with environmentally friendly products and excellent earnings growth and return on equity.
The company is Bare Escentuals (BARE).
BARE is about to break out of a bullish symmetrical triangle base after a breakout gap. Look for a breakout through 10.50.
A few days ago (please see my archived post from 5/31/09) we mentioned be careful of chasing the gold sector as it is quite overbought. We also mentioned to wait for a retracement to the 20 or 50 day moving average. This is what is happening a retracement to shake out weak holders. Our students and long term followers have been following Taseko for a few months. Today thestreet.com had a video on it. So the mainstream is now picking it up which concerns me as that means we will probably have a pullback.
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=13794899&src=finance&ch=633473
Dollar is exremely oversold and will bounce. Mining stocks are overbought. Place trailing stop losses to lock in gains. Be careful not to take new positions if stock is overextended. Wait for a pullback to get into positions. We believe we will have second buypoints for our position as a shakeout of weak hands will take place now. We will inform when our stops are hit. We will not be giving out new positions until we find more opportune buying points.
Let’s review our picks so far.
1)
TGB (Taseko)
Bought at 1.60
Now it is 1.91
19% Gain Recommended on 5/26/09
2)
NGD (New Gold)
Bought at 2.50
Now it is 3.04
22% Gain Recommended on 5/28/09
3)
GMO (General Moly)
Bought at 2.00
Now it is 2.68
34% Gain Recommended on 5/28/09
5 trading days goldstocktrades subscribers made 25% on there money.
We are still long on these positions but we keep trailing stops and we will post as soon as those sell signals are triggered. Please keep checking in.
This appears to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern which means that a break to the upside is highly probable. Look for a breakout of the previous top with good volume.
Since the March low the Nasdaq rally has lacked volume and appeared to make a rising wedge. After a breakout to the downside on low volume the Nasdaq appeared to make a rectangle sideways pattern. This battle between buyers and sellers was resolved today to the upside. Today the Nasdaq broke out of resistance so buyers are in control where bad news is shrugged off and any good economic news sends stocks soaring. At the moment we need to stay long and continue looking for the best trading opportunities.
Last week we gave a morning update to anticipate a breakout at $2. On Friday the stock catapulted through 2 to reach2.13 up 12% at more than 4 times normal volume. What a breakout.
We are extremely bullish on molybdenum. This element is used in so many industries and applications from refineries to nuclear reactors. The main industrial use is strengthening steel which is crucial as many emerging markets are investing in infrastructure.
This company General Moly has a huge project called Mt. Hope which is one of the largest undeveloped moly mines in the world. GMO was beaten down due to the credit crisis and the financing situation. However, it has gotten my interest and I believe it is showing us that it is getting a lot of interest from institutions as well.
Last week we wrote on the blog about New Gold and the opportunity the chart was presenting to us. We put a buy point at $2.50. On Friday it closed at $3.10 which was a 24% gain for our followers. This was a breakaway gap as it broke out of a base on more than three times normal volume. Breakaway gaps usually do not fill. As the mining sector is overbought there might be opportunities to buy NGD at a cheaper price if there is some overall weakness. Otherwise this is a classic breakaway gap which usually preceded major moves to the upside. So to all our students who got in when we posted are in a great postion.
The S&P 500 remains above the 20 and 50 day moving average. The S&P has moved sideways making a base after breaking out to the downside of a rising wedge pattern. This rally has been on low volume. So this rise has been on the back of other factors such as a seriously declining dollar, a bear market in treasuries and a major rally in the emerging markets.
If you remember when the stock market crashed last year everyone was running into treasuries and the dollar. Now the opposite is the case people are running out of treasuries and cash. The stock markets have rallied and companies with real commodity assets are soaring. It seems as though the opinion that a deflation will precede inflation has been confirmed.
The dollar was hit hard on Friday leading to a huge rally in gold mining stocks and basic materials. 
As you can see the rally is impressive, however it is extended. Investors need to be cautious in chasing after this sector.
Last week I showed the chart of TBT which is the short etf fund and I mentioned not to get to excited and wait for a pullback. That pullback has come and from the high volume sell off it seems as though the pull back could take longer as it is extremely overbought. I would wait until it approaches the 50 day moving average before taking new positions.
The rally in China is strong and hope has come back that the worst is over which has caused a major upturn in commodity industrial stocks. As you can see the I Shares Hong Kong is much more impressive than the US indices. Other emerging markets such as Brazil and India are also outperforming.
That’s it for this week.
This is a great point to buy New Gold. They have just combined with Western Goldfields. They will produce enough gold to be able to fund their development project in British Columbia called New Afton. This project has close to a billion pounds of copper. When buying a gold company making sure you have the management to grow and finance a company is crucial. They have the top minds in the field behind this company. Buying here at 2.50 is a great point to get in.
“Our nation’s system of retirement security is imperiled, headed for a serious train wreck. That wreck is not merely waiting to happen; we are running on a dangerous track that is leading directly to a serious crash that will disable major parts of our retirement system.”
– John Bogle, Feb. 24, 2009
Many people we come across tell me they are invested in the market with a financial adviser and they don’t even look at what they are invested in are how they are invested. They place their hard earned money in load mutual funds where they pay huge fees in ignorant bliss.
So many have lost their retirement or as Madoff has shown these so called advisors are emperors with no clothes. Buy and hold investors have been destroyed or in some cases duped.
In this blog we highlight specific companies that are breaking out using technical analysis. Technical analysis gives one of the tools to know which direction the market is going. We look at price and volume. We also look at key fundamentals of a company that has the ability to grow. Staying on the right side of the trend and managing risk is crucial to make good returns and have a retirement.
Finding small companies that are about to grow exponentially gives one the opportunity to make huge gains. Please follow along as we recommend low priced companies that are about to explode higher. I’m sure you won’t regret it. We do our research, we take chances, and we admit when a trade or stock has went against us and we preserve capital. Straight talk…no double talk from other so called financial experts.
This chart is showing the short long term treasury ETF. What TBT is showing is that higher long term interest rates and risk of inflation is here. Look at the breakout on May 7th and the beautiful retest at the 20 day moving average to give a secondary buypoint. Interest rates will be rising and prices of treasuries will continue to decline. If you want to follow this trade look for a pullback to the 20 day moving average or around $53.
Yesterday I gave a signal that Taseko would breakout of the symmetrical triangle formation. Today it did on huge volume. I believe this will be a quite profitable trade at this point.
The Nasdaq remains above its moving averages despite have light volume to support it. It is concerning because Nasdaq and Dow Jones appears to making a descending triangle pattern after a rising wedge formation. A break on volume at this point would cause the indexes to retest the March low. It would be nice to see some volume on a break down to 82.25 on the DJIA Diamonds and 32.75 on the Nasdaq to confirm the descending triangle. The lack of volume on this run up from March is quite concerning.
Investors are nervous of the government sales of treasuries which is causing the late afternoon selloff. The oversupply of treasuries and Fed’s balance sheet is a concern we should all have. How long can the government be bailing out and spending like there is no tomorrow?
Taseko is breaking out on good volume through the symmetrical triangle formation…good volume!
I want you to take a look at this chart of the dollar and the long term treasuries. They are both very bearish charts. The dollar has a head and shoulder reversal pattern. In December there was heavy institutional selling followed by a retest of the high on low volume. Each time it has tried to retest its 50 day moving average it fails. 200 day in danger of turning negative meaning that inflation is on its way. Both treasuries and dollar appear to be very bearish on the GDX which tracks mining stocks is giving a very bullish picture as we just had a breakout. I would wait for GDX to pull back to its 20 day moving average or the 38.50 are before buying.