Mining for Winners in Any Market

Posts Tagged ‘market summary’

Dollar and Gold Miner ETF Analysis

In Market Analysis on June 12, 2009 at 11:22 am

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UUP

As we can clearly see that the dollar is having a bear rally.  The moving averages and the trendline is acting as resistance.  The dollar opened up today and is testing the 20 day moving average which is the short term “magnet” for the stock.

The GDX has come back right where I thought it would come back to which was the previous resistance that is now its support.  Please see my archived analysis of GDX.  This teaches us not to chase after any positions as there will be second chances which is now.

Looking at the individual commodity stocks, it seems as though they are ready for another move.  Last night I sent out a free bulletin of two recommendations that have the possibility to make huge gains.

One of the Best Gold and Silver Mining Exploration Stock U.S. Gold

In Stock Movers on June 11, 2009 at 2:13 pm

Today U.S. Gold (UXG) came out with exceptional drilling results.  As I announced last week before there meeting in New York, that I believed that important news will come out.  Their El Gallo project is quite impressive as they are observing increasing mineralization and they are continuing to explore the property they acquired from Nevada Pacific.  They don’t even know how big that project can become.

They are also bringing out another drill in Nevada where they started actively drilling at the end of May.  They are exploring the outer edges of the Tonkin project to see if there are similar mineralizations as the huge Barrick project.

Rob Mcewen is on a mission to build a huge company, which he has done before.

As the chart shows we are breaking out here and I do believe this trade has an opportunity to make huge gains.

UXG

DIA Showing Distribution

In Market Analysis on June 10, 2009 at 8:17 pm

Dia 6-10

I posted a few days ago that DIA is approaching resistance at 9000 and this rise has been on light volume.  Some people have said that is because of  summer where trading decreases.  However, there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines.  If it was a true beginning of a bull then it would appear in the volume.

Therefore, I have been skeptical of this rise and I am very skeptical of this market after three days of increasing selling.  I expect a sell off.

This begs the question what about our stock positions in TGB, NGD, GMO, and UXG.  We need to be aware of the overall U.S. Market, however there still is strength in emerging markets so I am not prepared to sell my positions in these companies.  Stay tuned and I will notify if we have to take our trailing stops.

Car Sales Soar in China

In Stock Movers on June 9, 2009 at 11:56 pm

Base metals soared today as car sales in China are increasing at a rapid pace.  Taseko, New Gold and General Moly are  companies with huge deposits that have not been developed.  TGB and NGD are producing now so they will have cash flow.

Inflation is kicking in and the long term prospects of these companies are excellent.  I would buy GMO on any further weakness.  Molybdenum is used in making steel stronger and withstand greater heat and pressure.

gmo 5-29

UXG about to breakout of symmetrical triangle near 52 week high.  Notice how the volume is confirming price.  Again its giving us another opportunity to get into this position with an incredible land position in Nevada and great opportunity in Mexico.  This company has the top management in the business where the owner puts his money where his mouth is.  Rob Mcewen owns a good percentage of this company.

UXG

UXG

GDX Chart Analysis 6-9-09

In Market Analysis on June 9, 2009 at 7:17 pm

GDX 6-9-09

On a previous update I mentioned not to get too excited by buying the miners when they are overextended.  Look for strength as the mining index will come back to support which was previous resistance at 37.50.  Notice the upward sloping trendline that will act as support as well.  Coincidentally it appears as the 20 day on the weekly chart is very close to this trendline.

Molybdenum Companies Increasing Production

In Market Analysis on June 9, 2009 at 8:10 am

Thompson Creek came out with a news item today which states that it will increase production of molybdenum due to the improved market conditions.  This is what we saw here a few months ago in the charts of Thompson Creek and General Moly.  We believe that this is an opportune time to get into commodities as prices have not fully reflected market conditions.  We will be issuing recommendations shortly on a few more trades.  Stay tuned.

Stock Market Update. Important Week for DOW. 6-6-09

In Market Analysis on June 8, 2009 at 8:53 am

dia 6-7-09

Major resistance is being approached for the DOW.  Notice the trendline and resistance where it failed three times in December of 08.  Overhead resistance and lack of volume on the recent rally tells us to be careful and to be ready for a shorting opportunity.  Stay Tuned!  Make sure you have trailing stops set up.

China Buying Gold

In Market Analysis on June 8, 2009 at 8:36 am

China is buying gold like crazy!

http://www.chinamining.org/News/2009-06-08/1244423563d25443.html

Interesting Stock Chart on China

In Market Analysis on June 7, 2009 at 8:40 pm

FXI 6-6-09Notice the thick blue line and how FXI (25 largest and most liquid China Stocks) crosses that trendline on the point and figure chart.  This shows us the strength of the most leading emerging market and how this market had impacted this rally for the past three months since the March bottom.

It is clear that China is buying up natural resources and stimulating their economy.  The real estate market and construction industries in China are heating up.  They are building power plants, mines and roads.

There are a few signs that there might be a slight short term pullback the next few weeks from the non confirmation in relative strength and low volume.  However, this is the time to get into companies that the Chinese need which have huge amounts of natural resources.

The secret is out China is on the search for precious metals and natural resources.  These next couple of days will give second chances to get into companies that have those assets.

We know what the Chinese need and are able tom make huge gains in finding the companies that have the greatest leverage to these necessities.

Resistance on GDX (Gold Miner ETF)

In Market Analysis on June 4, 2009 at 11:51 pm

gdx 6-4-09We wanted to show a 2 year chart on GDX gold miner etf.  There is major resistance at the $45 dollar area which needs to be broken.  In order to do that I would not be surprised of a short term correction to the $39 area.  This is where I would wait so that the GDX comes off its overbought status and prepare for the next leg up.

Be Careful!

In Market Analysis on June 3, 2009 at 8:45 am

Dollar is exremely oversold and will bounce.  Mining stocks are overbought.  Place trailing stop losses to lock in gains.  Be careful not to take new positions if stock is overextended.  Wait for a pullback to get into positions.  We believe we will have second buypoints for our position as a shakeout of weak hands will take place now.  We will inform when our stops are hit.  We will not be giving out new positions until we find more opportune buying points.

Chart Of Gold (Inverted Head and Shoulders)

In Market Analysis on June 1, 2009 at 10:11 pm

gld 6-1-09

This appears to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern which means that a break to the upside is highly probable.  Look for a breakout of the previous top with good volume.

Nasdaq Breakout

In Market Analysis on June 1, 2009 at 8:42 pm

qqq 6-1Since the March low the Nasdaq rally has lacked volume and appeared to make a rising wedge.  After a breakout to the downside on low volume the Nasdaq appeared to make a rectangle sideways pattern.  This battle between buyers and sellers was resolved today to the upside.  Today the Nasdaq broke out of resistance so buyers are in control where bad news is shrugged off and any good economic news sends stocks soaring.  At the moment we need to stay long and continue looking for the best trading opportunities.

GMO Update General Moly

In Stock Movers on June 1, 2009 at 6:06 pm

General Moly had a major follow through today closing near the high on huge volume.  If you were following since last Wednesday you would have a nice profit.  I believe this company could run to at least 4.25.   It seems as though institutions are piling into this stock.   China is importing molybdenum as their demand is increasing significantly and the markets worst case scenarios are in the rearview mirror.gmo 6-1

GMO General Moly Update

In Stock Movers on June 1, 2009 at 12:10 am

Last week we gave a morning update to anticipate a breakout at $2.  On Friday the stock catapulted through 2 to reach2.13 up 12% at more than 4 times normal volume.  What a breakout.

We are extremely bullish on molybdenum.  This element is used in so many industries and applications from refineries to nuclear reactors.  The main industrial use is strengthening steel which is crucial as many emerging markets are investing in infrastructure.

This company General Moly has a huge project called Mt. Hope which is one of the largest undeveloped moly mines in the world. GMO was beaten down due to the credit crisis and the financing situation.  However, it has gotten my interest and I believe it is showing us that it is getting a lot of interest from institutions as well.

gmo 5-29

NGD New Gold Update

In Stock Movers on May 31, 2009 at 10:37 pm

Last week we wrote on the blog about New Gold and the opportunity the chart was presenting to us.  We put a buy point at $2.50.  On Friday it closed at $3.10 which was a 24% gain for our followers.  This was a breakaway gap as it broke out of a base on more than three times normal volume.  Breakaway gaps usually do not fill.  As the mining sector is overbought there might be opportunities to buy NGD at a cheaper price if there is some overall weakness.  Otherwise this is a classic breakaway gap which usually preceded major moves to the upside.  So to all our students who got in when we posted are in a great postion.

ngd 5-29

Market Summary Week Ending 5/29/09

In Market Analysis on May 31, 2009 at 9:54 pm

spy 5-29The S&P 500 remains above the 20 and 50 day moving average.  The S&P has moved sideways making a base after breaking out to the downside of a rising wedge pattern.  This rally has been on low volume.  So this rise has been on the back of other factors such as a seriously declining dollar,  a bear market in treasuries and a major rally in the emerging markets.

If you remember when the stock market crashed last year everyone was running into treasuries and the dollar.  Now the opposite is the case people are running out of treasuries and cash.  The stock markets have rallied and companies with real commodity assets are soaring.  It seems as though the opinion that a deflation will precede inflation has been confirmed.

The dollar was hit hard on Friday leading to a huge rally in gold mining stocks and basic materials.  GDX 5-29As you can see the rally is impressive, however it is extended.  Investors need to be cautious in chasing after this sector.

Last week I showed the chart of TBT which is the short etf fund and I mentioned not to get to excited and wait for a pullback.  That pullback has come and from the high volume sell off it seems as though the pull back could take longer as it is extremely overbought.  I would wait until it approaches the 50 day moving average before taking new positions.

tbt 5-29

The rally in China is strong and hope has come back that the worst is over which has caused a major upturn in commodity industrial stocks.  As you can see the I Shares Hong Kong is much more impressive than the US indices.  Other emerging markets such as Brazil and India are also outperforming.

ewh 5-29

That’s it for this week.

New Gold (NGD) Great Buy

In Stock Movers on May 28, 2009 at 2:51 pm

This is a great point to buy New Gold.  They have just combined with Western Goldfields.  They will produce enough gold to be able to fund their  development project in British Columbia called New Afton.  This project has close to a billion pounds of copper.  When buying a gold company making sure you have the management to grow and finance a company is crucial.  They have the top minds in the field behind this company.  Buying here at 2.50 is a great point to get in.

Taseko is Up on Higher Volume

In Stock Movers on May 28, 2009 at 1:38 pm

The volume is good on Taseko above average today to qualify as a breakout.  Let’s hope it closes at the high of the day as more investors pile in and recognize the breakout.

Morning Stock Pick General Moly (GMO)

In Stock Movers on May 28, 2009 at 9:35 am

gmo 5-26Genereal Moly has one of the largest undeveloped molybdenum mines in North America.  Moly is necessary for high strength steel which is used in many industrial applications such as oil drilling and nuclear reactors.  Demand is growing again as the economy is bottoming out in China and in other emerging markets.  A breakout through $2 on volume will catapult this stock to $5.  Arcelor mittal put a lot of money into this company and I wouldn’t be surprised if they got a takeover bid at this level from Thompson Creek Metals.

Retirement Crisis

In Market Analysis on May 28, 2009 at 8:57 am

“Our nation’s system of retirement security is imperiled, headed for a serious train wreck. That wreck is not merely waiting to happen; we are running on a dangerous track that is leading directly to a serious crash that will disable major parts of our retirement system.”

– John Bogle, Feb. 24, 2009

Many people we come across tell me they are invested in the market with a financial adviser and they don’t even look at what they are invested in are how they are invested.  They place their hard earned money in load mutual funds where they pay huge fees in ignorant bliss.

So many have lost their retirement or as Madoff has shown these so called advisors are emperors with no clothes.  Buy and hold investors have been destroyed or in some cases duped.

In this blog we highlight specific companies that are breaking out using technical analysis.  Technical analysis gives one of the tools to know which direction the market is going.  We look at price and volume.  We also look at key fundamentals of a company that has the ability to grow.   Staying on the right side of the trend and managing risk is crucial to make good returns and have a retirement.

Finding small companies that are about to grow exponentially gives one the opportunity to make huge gains.  Please follow along as we recommend low priced companies that are about to explode higher.  I’m sure you won’t regret it.  We do our research, we take chances, and we admit when a trade or stock has went against us and we preserve capital.  Straight talk…no double talk from other so called financial experts.

Watch for Higher Interest Rates

In Market Analysis on May 28, 2009 at 8:11 am

TBT 5-28

This chart is showing the short long term treasury ETF.  What TBT is showing is that higher long term interest rates and risk of inflation is here.  Look at the breakout on May 7th and the beautiful retest at the 20 day moving average to give a secondary buypoint.  Interest rates will be rising and prices of treasuries will continue to decline.  If you want to follow this trade look for a pullback to the 20 day moving average or around $53.

Market Summary May 26th 2009

In Market Analysis on May 27, 2009 at 6:09 pm

nasdaq May26

The Nasdaq remains above its moving averages despite have light volume to support it.  It is concerning because Nasdaq and Dow Jones appears to making a descending triangle pattern after a rising wedge formation.  A break on volume at this point would cause the indexes to retest the March low.  It would be nice to see some volume on a break down to 82.25 on the DJIA Diamonds and 32.75 on the Nasdaq to confirm the descending triangle.  The lack of volume on this run up from March is quite concerning.

Treasuries are dropping

In Market Analysis on May 27, 2009 at 2:51 pm

Investors are nervous of the government sales of treasuries which is causing the late afternoon selloff.  The oversupply of treasuries and Fed’s balance sheet is a concern we should all have.  How long can the government be bailing out and spending like there is no tomorrow?

Dollar and Treasuries Look Bearish/Gold Mining Looks Bullish

In Market Analysis on May 27, 2009 at 8:12 am

gdx 5-26tlt 5-26dollar 5-26I want you to take a look at this chart of the dollar and the long term treasuries.  They are both very bearish charts.  The dollar  has a head and shoulder reversal pattern.  In December there was heavy institutional selling followed by a retest of the high on low volume.  Each time it has tried to retest its 50 day moving average it fails.  200 day in danger of turning negative meaning that inflation is on its way.  Both treasuries and dollar appear to be very bearish on the GDX which tracks mining stocks is giving a very bullish picture as we just had a breakout.  I would wait for GDX to pull back to its 20 day moving average or the 38.50 are before buying.

Market Summary May 25th

In Market Analysis on May 26, 2009 at 6:05 pm

dj may25The Dow was up and regained to stay above the 20 day moving average even though volume remains quite light.  It does look that the market is rounding and price volume action is poor.  Be careful.  gld may 25Look at GLD.  Gold closed near the high of the day after opening up lower.  Price volume action is good as it approaches all time highs.  Look for GLD to pull back to 20 day before breaking out into new high territory.